Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
